The one superpower we all need
by A M Howcroft, SWARM CEO
Last year we posted about the five superpowers SWARM software can deliver to supply chain companies, but there is a sixth power that seems to be in remarkably short supply right now, which is stronger than the others. What is this remarkable power? Luck.
You don’t need to able to predict the future, hide with invisibility, or have a skin made of impenetrable armour, as long as you are lucky. Things will simply work out in your favour; the bullet will miss, the stock market will crash the day after you sell your shares, and you’ll buy a winning lottery ticket at the garage.
Of course, luck can be good or bad. Every week there seems to be more terrible news of tragic and completely unnecessary deaths, whether the cause is school shootings, floods, or plane crashes. I’m still reflecting on the heroic but tragic death of Dr John Cheung. Luck is so often about being in the right place at the right time, or the wrong place at the wrong time. As the adage goes, you make your own luck, but I wonder how true that really is?
Controllable vs uncontrollable luck.
Perhaps it would be useful to differentiate between the different aspects of luck. It feels like the word luck is over-used, a cocktail of effects that mixes two different yet potent brews together. Let’s start by dividing luck into its constituent parts: controllable and uncontrollable.
Controllable luck refers to the factors that an individual or organization can affect, in other words, the steps they take to increase their chances of success.
Uncontrollable luck refers to the random events that can occur, which are nearly impossible to predict, such as natural disasters, market fluctuations, or the sudden appearance of an aggrieved person with a gun.
Breaking luck into these two categories can help clarify the role that luck plays in any given situation. It can also help individuals and organizations focus on the factors they can influence, while also acknowledging the impact of chaotic episodes or black swan events. By understanding the difference between the two categories, you can better anticipate and respond to the unexpected.
Make your own luck
Many of us believe that we can increase our chance of success by taking proactive steps and being prepared for opportunities. This would seem to affect controllable luck, but its influence is much greater, and mixes into both categories. Typical steps we could list to improve your luck might be:
Setting clear goals and working towards them with determination and focus.
Being open to new opportunities and taking calculated risks when appropriate.
Being resourceful and finding creative solutions to problems.
Building a strong network of contacts who can provide support and guidance.
Continuously learning and developing new skills.
Being resilient and not giving up in the face of challenges.
It is important to note that while taking these actions can increase your chances of success, it is not a guarantee of good luck. Even the most well-prepared individuals or companies can still encounter uncontrollable luck, causing setbacks and messing up well-laid plans. Making your own luck increases your chances of success, but it is not the only factor to be considered. You also need to be flexible and adaptable.
Luck in action
There was a true story about a pilot who suffered a catastrophic failure in his fighter jet while taking off from an aircraft carrier. In a fraction of a second his plane had plummeted into the ocean. The pilot only had a moment to recognize the problem and safely eject, which he did. A half-second hesitation would have propelled him underwater as the thrusters on his seat fired when he was tilted towards the ocean. His peers considered that he had been ‘lucky’ to survive. In the messroom a colleague asked him when he had decided to eject, and his answer was ‘twenty years ago’. He made the decision back then that if he ever reached a certain marker on the runway, and the plane did not have full thrust he would immediately eject. That preparation saved his life. It was uncontrollable bad luck that something went wrong with his plane, but he had controlled his luck by being prepared in advance.
Here's a business example: a company operates in a fast-moving space, with more orders than they can cope with. They have ample raw materials sourced from a nearby country, and their biggest challenge is having enough trained people and equipment at their facilities to produce the finished goods. One of their employees decides to explore contingency plans to diversify their sourcing of raw materials. She forms relationships with vendors in other regions, and tests small batches of orders to explore the product quality, transportation routes, and so on. When disaster strikes, and the prime supplying country suffers a natural disaster, rapidly followed by a political coup, the flow of goods comes to an immediate halt. The contingency plan then switches into full operation, and the company survives – while several competitors fail. The executives in the collapsed firms bemoan their bad luck because nobody could have foreseen the natural disaster and its after-effects.
In both cases there were uncontrollable episodes of bad luck, but the use of controllable luck allowed the people and company to survive and thrive. Not every incident is bad luck, either. Sometimes the opportunities that come our way are uncontrollable good luck, but still only the prepared can take advantage. Several people have famously won fortunes on the lottery and then squandered it all, because they were not mentally prepared to deal with this.
The sixth superpower
Luck is a powerful force, but unpredictable, which is why fortune is so famous for being fickle. In the world of supply chain management, luck can lead to new opportunities and favourable outcomes, or challenges and disastrous results. To mitigate the impact of uncontrollable luck on your supply chain, it is important to have a well-crafted and flexible plan in place. This will allow you to take advantage of opportunities as they arise and increase your chance of turning uncontrollable luck into a positive outcome for you.
I should insert a small advert here, and highlight the fact that SWARM is an AI platform for optimizing supply chain processes, that specializes in managing disruption automatically. That’s something that certain AI systems excel at doing, compared to humans. SWARM can handle many variables simultaneously and find an optimal solution in seconds. We can help you be prepared – increasing your controllable luck.
So good [controllable] luck can be seen as a superpower in the sense that it can lead to unexpected opportunities and favourable consequences. While it can’t be relied upon, it is important to have a well-crafted plan and powerful tools in place, so that whatever fortune throws your way, it can be turned into an advantage.
P.S. If you’ve ever watched a James Bond spy movie, you might notice that his go-to response to being in a tight situation is to cause havoc. He will disconnect the electricity, blow something up, and generally disrupt the hostile environment in which he has found himself. This is because he relies on his controllable luck – he has prepared and understands that he can handle chaos better than his foes. How would your company react to another prolonged period of disruption? Are you prepared? Would another disruption actually be an advantage for you…now there’s an interesting question!